A pair of American League East rivals meet on Tuesday for the middle game of a three-game series when the Toronto Blue Jays (35-42, 5th AL East) visit Fenway Park to face the Boston Red Sox (42-36, 3rd AL East). Toronto was defeated by the Cleveland Guardians 6-5 on Sunday and the Blue Jays were swept by the Guardians in a three-game series after coming off a three-game series versus Boston in which they were also swept. Toronto's last in the AL East, 15 ½ games behind first place. Boston defeated the Cincinnati Reds 7-4 on Sunday and won two out of three over the Reds in a weekend series. The Red Sox are third in the AL East, nine games behind first place. Toronto will play without three pitchers as well as shortstop Bo Bichette. Boston will play without seven pitchers as well as position players Trevor Story, Triston Casas and Vaughn Grissom.
This article was written prior to these two playing on Tuesday.
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Toronto’s struggles begin but do not end at the plate
Toronto is 16th in on-base percentage (.310), 23rd in batting average (.232), 25th in slugging percentage (.368) and 27th in runs scored (296). Daulton Varsho (probable) is leading Toronto in home runs at 11 and RBI with 35, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr is second in home runs with nine and in RBI with 33. Toronto has only six players with 22 or more RBI. The Blue Jays have hit 124 doubles, 9 triples and 67 home runs for 200 extra-base hits and 77 games.
The Blue Jays are 7th in Quality Starts (33), 21st in WHIP (1.29), 22nd in ERA (4.18) and 23rd in batting average allowed (.252). Jose Berrios is leading Toronto in wins with 6 and in ERA for starters with 3.43, while Yusei Kikuchi is the leader in strikeouts with 86. Toronto will hand the ball to Kevin Gausman on Tuesday. This season the right-hander is 5-6 with an ERA 4.24 and 79 strikeouts.
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Boston is getting it done both at plate and on the mound
The Boston Red Sox are in the top 10 of four major hitting categories. Boston is sixth in both on-base percentage (.323) and batting average (.254), while seventh in slugging percentage (.419) and 10th in runs scored (363). Tyler O'Neill is leading Boston in home runs with 50, while Ceddanne Rafaela is the leader in RBI with 41. Rafael Devers has 14 (2nd) home runs and 41 (2nd) RBI. Boston has hit 141 doubles, 21 triples and 86 home runs for 248 extra-base hits in 78 games.
Boston is fifth in both ERA (3.45) and WHIP (1.17), while 8th in batting average allowed (.233) and 17th in Quality Starts (27). Tanner Houck is leading Boston in victories with 7 and in ERA for starting pitchers with 2.14, while Kutter Crawford is the leader in strikeouts with 95. Brayan Bello will start on the mound for Boston on Tuesday. This season the right-hander is 7-4 with an ERA of 4.83 and 62 strikeouts.
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Best Bets for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Full-Game Side Bet
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Toronto has lost each of the last six and the Blue Jays have lost five of the last six played on the road. In contrast, Boston has won seven of the last eight and the Red Sox have won each of the last five when playing against the team from the American League East. The Red Sox are in the top 10 of four major hitting categories, Toronto is 16th or worse in the same four hitting statistics. Boston's team ERA is 5th best, while Toronto's is a distant 22nd. Toronto starting pitcher Kevin Gausman was roughed up last time out when giving up six hits and four earned runs in 5.2 innings, including walking three and serving up a pair of home runs. The result was a 7-3 loss to Boston. Over the last four starts, Gausman has allowed 13 runs in 27.1 innings. Boston starting pitcher Brayan Bello is coming off a solid outing in which the right-hander allowed seven hits and two runs in six innings when defeating Toronto last Wednesday 7-3.
Prediction: Boston Red Sox ML
Full-Game Total Pick
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When these two met last week, the total finished over in two of the three games. The total has finished over in 13 of Boston's last 20 games, in four of the Red Sox last 5 games played at home and in six of the last eight games that Boston has played at home against Toronto. Ten runs were scored in Brayan Bello’s start for Boston versus Toronto last Wednesday, and Toronto starter Kevin Gausman has given up seven runs in the last 11 innings.
Prediction: OVER
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