2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (2024)

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (1)

Paul Bretl

April 20, 2024 7:18 am ET

For this penultimate full first-round computer simulation, I let PFF’s mock draft simulator take control and make the picks for each team.

What I enjoy about this exercise is it takes many of the variables out of the equation, giving us mostly unbiased results, and oftentimes, new selections to pontificate on.

Now, of course, the prospect rankings created by PFF and determining what each teams’ positional needs are going to be are still a few of the variables in play, but the simulation helps make putting this mock draft together a much cleaner process.

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Here is a look at how things turned out, along with analysis on each prospect from PFF. At the top of the draft was a shake-up from the Patriots, who decided not to draft a quarterback.

1.1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB USC

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (2)

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 18: Caleb Williams #13 of the USC Trojans passes the ball during the first half of a game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 18, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Height: 6-1

Weight: 214

RAS: N/A

PFF rank: 1

PFF analysis: “Williams is an incredibly talented player with natural gifts even other previous QB1s do not have. His issues are more from a lack of consistency than ability in any area. This is a QB with franchise-changing talent that is worthy of a No. 1 overall selection.”

1.2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (3)

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210

RAS: N/A

PFF rank: 21st

PFF analysis: “Daniels’ rushing ability and fundamentals give him a high floor as a player who can put a ton of stress on a defense. His arm talent is adequate to give him a decently high ceiling and makes him a worthy first-round bet to make.”

1.3. New England Patriots: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (4)

Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 209

RAS: N/A

PFF rank: 2nd

PFF analysis: “Harrison comes from Hall-of-Fame bloodlines, and you can see that in his tape without even knowing his last name. He has a truly rare blend of size, speed, strength and football IQ for such a young player. He will be a WR1-caliber player the day he is drafted, and one in the mold of a Tier 1 NFL wideout.”

1.4. Arizona Cardinals: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (5)

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 212

RAS: 9.92

PFF rank: 6th

PFF analysis: “In an offense filled with future NFL players at the skill positions, Odunze was the best of the bunch. If he weren’t in a class with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, we would be talking about him as an easy WR1 and a player worthy of a top-10 pick, although the latter is still true for 2024.”

1.5. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (6)

Jan 1, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive lineman Joe Alt (76) defends against Oklahoma State Cowboys defensive end Brock Martin (9) in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-8

Weight: 321

RAS: 9.93

PFF rank: 5th

PFF analysis: “The NFL draft is all about finding players with size, speed and strength who have the IQ to use those traits optimally. That’s Joe Alt, and that should spell a top-10 selection as a future long-term tackle.”

1.6. New York Giants: Drake Maye, QB, UNC

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (7)

Nov 11, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to pass in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-4

Weight: 223

RAS: N/A

PFF rank: 3rd

PFF analysis: “Maye’s arm talent alone puts him in the first-round and top-10 conversation. Though his ball placement and decision-making (including sacks taken) need improvement, he has all the talent tools you want to bet on as a franchise QB.”

1.7. Tennessee Titans: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (8)

Tigers reciever Malik Nabers 8 runs the ball as the LSU Tigers take on Georgia State in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 18, 2023.

Height: 6-0

Weight: 199

RAS: 9.67

PFF rank: 4th

PFF analysis: “Nabers’ movement skills are rare, even at the NFL level. His ability to change direction yet continue to accelerate makes him an open-target specialist in the slot and on the outside. He has the kind of athleticism that demands a defense to know where he is at all times as a future WR1.”

1.8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (9)

Dec 2, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Dallas Turner (15) celebrates after a sack in the second quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 247

RAS: 9.49

PFF rank: 16th

PFF analysis: “Although he can continue to improve as a run defender and a tackler, Turner is a first-round type of edge rusher with high-ceiling pass-rush traits who can contribute in year one with a bright future ahead.”

1.9. Chicago Bears: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (10)

Joshua L. Jones/USA TODAY NETWORK

Height: 6-3

Weight: 243

RAS: N/A

PFF rank: 7th

PFF analysis: “Outside of being on the smaller side, Bowers is a dream tight end prospect who can be an impact player in the slot, out wide and inline. Add in his reliable blocking ability on the line and in space, and you have an ultimate chess piece offensive weapon with All-Pro potential.”

1.10. New York Jets: Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (11)

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies offensive lineman Troy Fautanu (55) blocks for tight end Devin Culp (83) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-4

Weight: 317

RAS: 9.62

PFF rank: 15th

PFF analysis:

“Fautanu is a true athlete of an offensive lineman with starting-caliber traits for center or guard. His movement skills would be a big plus in a zone-blocking scheme.”

1.11. Minnesota Vikings: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (12)

Jan 1, 2024; Pasadena, CA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Terrion Arnold (3) celebrates after an incomplete pass during the first half against the Michigan Wolverines in the 2024 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 5-11

Weight: 189

RAS: 8.37

PFF rank: 14th

PFF analysis:

“Arnold isn’t the most polished cornerback in this class, but his high-percentile athletic abilities give him as high of a ceiling as any cornerback in man or zone systems.”

1.12. Denver Broncos: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (13)

Oct 8, 2022; Stanford, California, USA; Oregon State Beavers offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (75) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Levani Damuni (3) during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-6

Weight: 324

RAS: 9.63

PFF rank: 13th

PFF analysis:

“Ultimately, Fuaga has the tape of a starting NFL offensive lineman, whether that is at tackle or guard. He brings the powerful mentality needed to stand out in the trenches. I believe he has the adequate length and foot speed, good offensive line IQ and elite strength to succeed at tackle and get a shot there as a first-round pick.”

1.13. Las Vegas Raiders: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (14)

HOUSTON, TEXAS – JANUARY 08: J.J. McCarthy #9 of the Michigan Wolverines looks on in the first half against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 CFP National Championship game at NRG Stadium on January 08, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Height: 6-2

Weight: 218

RAS: N/A

PFF rank: 28th

PFF analysis: “McCarthy is not a finished product, but he is a growing quarterback with experience in a pro-style offense and good tools (physical and mental) to be a starting QB in the NFL.”

1.14. New Orleans Saints: Byron Murphy, IDL, Texas

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (15)

Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) celebrates after a sack against TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, November. 11, 2023, at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

Height: 6-0

Weight: 297

RAS: 9.20

PFF rank: 12th

PFF analysis:

“Murphy is a gifted defensive lineman in both the strength and speed categories. He is a versatile three-down player who brings plus abilities as a run defender and a pass rusher, projecting as a first-round impact starter for any front.”

1.15. Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (16)

Dec 2, 2023; Detroit, MI, USA; Toledo Rockets cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (27) breaks up a pass intended for Miami (OH) Redhawks wide receiver Gage Larvadain (10) in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-0

Weight: 195

RAS: 9.80

PFF rank: 9th

PFF analysis: “Mitchell recorded some of the best advanced coverage metrics over a two-year sample size in the PFF college era. He has all the ability in the world to be a CB1 at the next level, but his lack of experience in press coverage could stop him from being a unanimous first-round pick on every team’s board.”

1.16. Seattle Seahawks: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (17)

Sep 17, 2022; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) celebrates with offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu (74) after scoring a touchdown against the Auburn Tigers during the third quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-6

Weight: 312

RAS: 9.58

PFF rank: 17th

PFF analysis: “Fashanu is not only incredibly talented but will also be one of the youngest prospects in the 2024 class. He is the type of athlete in the trenches teams should draft in the first round, even if he needs to get stronger to live up to his very high potential.”

1.17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (18)

Dec 2, 2023; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Jared Verse (5) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Louisville Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-4

Weight: 254

RAS: 9.57

PFF rank: 19th

PFF analysis: “Verse doesn’t have the longest arms, and that shows up in some pass-rush counters and in tackling, but he brings his hard hat and lunch pail to every snap, wins with strength regularly and is built like a first-rounder.”

1.18. Cincinnati Bengals: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (19)

Nov 11, 2023; Pasadena, California, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils wide receiver Melquan Stovall (7) runs against UCLA Bruins defensive lineman Laiatu Latu (15) at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Alex Gallardo-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-5

Weight: 259

RAS: 9.30

PFF rank: 10th

PFF analysis: “Overall, though somewhat limited athletically, his home is in the offensive backfield due to his hand usage and pass-rush moves that will continue to win at the NFL level.”

1.19. Los Angeles Rams: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (20)

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-0

Weight: 203

RAS: 9.85

PFF rank: 8th

PFF analysis: “The talk of DeJean playing outside cornerback or safety or slot cornerback at the next level is not due to lack of a home position; it’s because he could truly be an impact player anywhere. His footwork, ball skills and explosive athleticism make him an impactful outside cornerback — one with All-Pro potential.”

1.20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

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Jan 9, 2023; Inglewood, CA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Amarius Mims (65) and offensive lineman Tate Ratledge (69) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-7

Weight: 340

RAS: 9.59

PFF rank: 20th

PFF analysis: “Mims is not a polished prospect — he’s a level below former teammate and first-round pick Broderick Jones — but he brings sky-high potential. He’ll take some developing, but trench players built like this don’t make it out of the top 50.”

1.21. Miami Dolphins: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (22)

Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-6

Weight: 342

RAS: N/A

PFF rank: 18th

PFF analysis: “Latham is in the mold of an offensive lineman who does not come around often. He will be just 21 years old during his rookie season, yet he has two years of starting experience in the SEC. Despite drawing 18 penalties over the past two years and having room to improve in some anticipation parts of the position, Latham is a first-round trench player due to his rare combination of size, speed and refinement.”

1.22. Philadelphia Eagles: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (23)

Nov 25, 2023; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers cornerback Nate Wiggins (2) smiles after breaking up a pass to South Carolina wide receiver Nyck Harbor (8) during the fourth quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Clemson won 16-7. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-1

Weight: 173

RAS: 9.42

PFF rank: 24th

PFF analysis: “Wiggins has the tools of a first-round, high-impact cornerback. His athleticism will never be in question, nor will his competitiveness. Those two characteristics should yield a long-term starting player.”

1.23. Minnesota Vikings: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (24)

Feb 3, 2024; Mobile, AL, USA; National quarterback Bo Nix of Oregon (10) throws the ball during the first half of the 2024 Senior Bowl football game at Hanco*ck Whitney Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-2

Weight: 214

RAS: N/A

PFF rank: 35th

PFF analysis: “Nix’s experience manifests in the form of pre-snap reads, play under pressure and avoiding negatives. His footwork needs to be more disciplined, and he will take some time to really read progressions better in the NFL. However, he is a QB with starting-caliber tools in his arm and his legs, and he comes with added out-of-structure playmaking.”

1.24. Dallas Cowboys: Jer'Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois

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Nov 6, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive lineman Jer’Zhan Newton (94) reacts to a missed stop in the third quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-2

Weight: 295

RAS: N/A

PFF rank: 11th

PFF analysis: “Newton has some physical limitations due to his size and lack of natural flexibility, but his hand usage, pass-rush tools and block-shedding ability allow him to be very productive in any alignment as a three-to-five-technique player.”

1.25. Green Bay Packers: Graham Barton, IOL, Duke

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (26)

Nov 11, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils offensive lineman Graham Barton (62) before the game at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-5

Weight: 313

RAS: 9.99

PFF rank: 23rd

PFF analysis: “Barton is a tough lineman who moves well and has strong hands and a mean streak in the run game. His best position in the NFL is likely at center, as he brings starting-caliber traits there.”

1.26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

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Jan 1, 2024; New Orleans, LA, USA; Texas Longhorns wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (5) catches a touchdown pass against Washington Huskies running back Ryder Bumgarner (25) during the fourth quarter in the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-2

Weight: 205

RAS: 9.99

PFF rank: 22nd

PFF analysis: “Mitchell’s fluidity at his size makes him a tough matchup, especially in the red zone. The biggest area of concern I have with him is that I wish he attacked the ball more when it was in the air. If he improves in that category, he has fringe WR1/WR2 abilities.”

1.27. Arizona Cardinals: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon

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Nov 18, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Oregon Ducks offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson (58) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 328

RAS: N/A

PFF rank: 27th

PFF analysis: “Powers-Johnson possesses starting-caliber power and finesse traits at center or guard for both zone or man/gap-blocking concepts. He is dominant enough at his position to be considered a top-20 talent.”

1.28. Buffalo Bills: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

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Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-3

Weight: 209

RAS: 9.84

PFF rank: 25th

PFF analysis: “Thomas offers a good combination of size and speed to push the ball vertically down the sideline, demanding safeties stay rotated to his side. To truly unlock that kind of threat, he will need to show he can consistently beat press coverage. Offenses that like to push the ball will prioritize what he brings to the table in the top 50.”

1.29. Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (30)

Alabama defensive back Kool-Aid McKinstry (1) gestures in celebration after Tennessee failed to convert a 4th down in the fourth quarter of a football game between Tennessee and Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023.

Height: 5-11

Weight: 199

RAS: 7.54

PFF rank: 26th

PFF analysis: “McKinstry plays one of the most difficult positions in the game with so much poise and production. He might not be an elite athlete, but he is one of the smartest cornerback prospects you’ll find. He can play in any defensive scheme and is the type of player you draft in the first round.”

1.30. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (31)

Nov 25, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats offensive lineman Jordan Morgan (77) against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-5

Weight: 311

RAS: 9.24

PFF rank: 37th

PFF analysis: “Morgan needs to get stronger, whether he plays tackle or guard in the NFL, but he has desirable athletic traits, such as fast hands and feet, that bolster his starting-caliber potential.”

1.31. San Francisco 49ers: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (32)

Nov 24, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks wide receiver Troy Franklin (11) celebrates after catching a pass for a touchdown during the first half against the Oregon State Beavers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 6-2

Weight: 176

RAS: 9.02

PFF rank: 29th

PFF analysis: “Franklin might get lost in the shuffle of a loaded wide receiver class, but he shouldn’t. His smoothness comes from his athletic profile and his confidence in knowing how to win at the position. He needs to continue to get stronger but, overall, is a competitive player who can be a good WR2 for a vertical NFL offense.”

1.32. Kansas City Chiefs: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (33)

Dec 30, 2023; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Ladd McConkey (84) makes a catch and runs for touchdown against the Florida State Seminoles during the first half in the 2023 Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Height: 5-11

Weight: 186

RAS: 9.33

PFF rank: 32nd

PFF analysis: “Don’t expect McConkey to be an “X,” jump ball receiver, but outside of that, it’s hard to imagine him not succeeding in the NFL. His game is reminiscent of Eddie Royal. Maybe not as fast with long speed, but he has devastating quickness, is good in the return game and is a strong blocker for his size.”

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2024 NFL mock draft: Full first-round computer simulation with WR shake-up at the top (2024)
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