Paul Bretl
April 20, 2024 7:18 am ET
For this penultimate full first-round computer simulation, I let PFF’s mock draft simulator take control and make the picks for each team.
What I enjoy about this exercise is it takes many of the variables out of the equation, giving us mostly unbiased results, and oftentimes, new selections to pontificate on.
Now, of course, the prospect rankings created by PFF and determining what each teams’ positional needs are going to be are still a few of the variables in play, but the simulation helps make putting this mock draft together a much cleaner process.
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Here is a look at how things turned out, along with analysis on each prospect from PFF. At the top of the draft was a shake-up from the Patriots, who decided not to draft a quarterback.
1.1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB USC
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 18: Caleb Williams #13 of the USC Trojans passes the ball during the first half of a game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on November 18, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Height: 6-1
Weight: 214
RAS: N/A
PFF rank: 1
PFF analysis: “Williams is an incredibly talented player with natural gifts even other previous QB1s do not have. His issues are more from a lack of consistency than ability in any area. This is a QB with franchise-changing talent that is worthy of a No. 1 overall selection.”
1.2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-3
Weight: 210
RAS: N/A
PFF rank: 21st
PFF analysis: “Daniels’ rushing ability and fundamentals give him a high floor as a player who can put a ton of stress on a defense. His arm talent is adequate to give him a decently high ceiling and makes him a worthy first-round bet to make.”
1.3. New England Patriots: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-3
Weight: 209
RAS: N/A
PFF rank: 2nd
PFF analysis: “Harrison comes from Hall-of-Fame bloodlines, and you can see that in his tape without even knowing his last name. He has a truly rare blend of size, speed, strength and football IQ for such a young player. He will be a WR1-caliber player the day he is drafted, and one in the mold of a Tier 1 NFL wideout.”
1.4. Arizona Cardinals: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-3
Weight: 212
RAS: 9.92
PFF rank: 6th
PFF analysis: “In an offense filled with future NFL players at the skill positions, Odunze was the best of the bunch. If he weren’t in a class with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, we would be talking about him as an easy WR1 and a player worthy of a top-10 pick, although the latter is still true for 2024.”
1.5. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Jan 1, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish offensive lineman Joe Alt (76) defends against Oklahoma State Cowboys defensive end Brock Martin (9) in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-8
Weight: 321
RAS: 9.93
PFF rank: 5th
PFF analysis: “The NFL draft is all about finding players with size, speed and strength who have the IQ to use those traits optimally. That’s Joe Alt, and that should spell a top-10 selection as a future long-term tackle.”
1.6. New York Giants: Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Nov 11, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to pass in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-4
Weight: 223
RAS: N/A
PFF rank: 3rd
PFF analysis: “Maye’s arm talent alone puts him in the first-round and top-10 conversation. Though his ball placement and decision-making (including sacks taken) need improvement, he has all the talent tools you want to bet on as a franchise QB.”
1.7. Tennessee Titans: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Tigers reciever Malik Nabers 8 runs the ball as the LSU Tigers take on Georgia State in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, November 18, 2023.
Height: 6-0
Weight: 199
RAS: 9.67
PFF rank: 4th
PFF analysis: “Nabers’ movement skills are rare, even at the NFL level. His ability to change direction yet continue to accelerate makes him an open-target specialist in the slot and on the outside. He has the kind of athleticism that demands a defense to know where he is at all times as a future WR1.”
1.8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
Dec 2, 2023; Atlanta, GA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Dallas Turner (15) celebrates after a sack in the second quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-3
Weight: 247
RAS: 9.49
PFF rank: 16th
PFF analysis: “Although he can continue to improve as a run defender and a tackler, Turner is a first-round type of edge rusher with high-ceiling pass-rush traits who can contribute in year one with a bright future ahead.”
1.9. Chicago Bears: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Joshua L. Jones/USA TODAY NETWORK
Height: 6-3
Weight: 243
RAS: N/A
PFF rank: 7th
PFF analysis: “Outside of being on the smaller side, Bowers is a dream tight end prospect who can be an impact player in the slot, out wide and inline. Add in his reliable blocking ability on the line and in space, and you have an ultimate chess piece offensive weapon with All-Pro potential.”
1.10. New York Jets: Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies offensive lineman Troy Fautanu (55) blocks for tight end Devin Culp (83) against the Michigan Wolverines during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-4
Weight: 317
RAS: 9.62
PFF rank: 15th
PFF analysis:
“Fautanu is a true athlete of an offensive lineman with starting-caliber traits for center or guard. His movement skills would be a big plus in a zone-blocking scheme.”
1.11. Minnesota Vikings: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Jan 1, 2024; Pasadena, CA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Terrion Arnold (3) celebrates after an incomplete pass during the first half against the Michigan Wolverines in the 2024 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
1.12. Denver Broncos: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Oct 8, 2022; Stanford, California, USA; Oregon State Beavers offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga (75) blocks Stanford Cardinal linebacker Levani Damuni (3) during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-6
Weight: 324
RAS: 9.63
PFF rank: 13th
PFF analysis:
“Ultimately, Fuaga has the tape of a starting NFL offensive lineman, whether that is at tackle or guard. He brings the powerful mentality needed to stand out in the trenches. I believe he has the adequate length and foot speed, good offensive line IQ and elite strength to succeed at tackle and get a shot there as a first-round pick.”
1.13. Las Vegas Raiders: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
HOUSTON, TEXAS – JANUARY 08: J.J. McCarthy #9 of the Michigan Wolverines looks on in the first half against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 CFP National Championship game at NRG Stadium on January 08, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Height: 6-2
Weight: 218
RAS: N/A
PFF rank: 28th
PFF analysis: “McCarthy is not a finished product, but he is a growing quarterback with experience in a pro-style offense and good tools (physical and mental) to be a starting QB in the NFL.”
1.14. New Orleans Saints: Byron Murphy, IDL, Texas
Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) celebrates after a sack against TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, November. 11, 2023, at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.
Height: 6-0
Weight: 297
RAS: 9.20
PFF rank: 12th
PFF analysis:
“Murphy is a gifted defensive lineman in both the strength and speed categories. He is a versatile three-down player who brings plus abilities as a run defender and a pass rusher, projecting as a first-round impact starter for any front.”
1.15. Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Dec 2, 2023; Detroit, MI, USA; Toledo Rockets cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (27) breaks up a pass intended for Miami (OH) Redhawks wide receiver Gage Larvadain (10) in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-0
Weight: 195
RAS: 9.80
PFF rank: 9th
PFF analysis: “Mitchell recorded some of the best advanced coverage metrics over a two-year sample size in the PFF college era. He has all the ability in the world to be a CB1 at the next level, but his lack of experience in press coverage could stop him from being a unanimous first-round pick on every team’s board.”
1.16. Seattle Seahawks: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Sep 17, 2022; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) celebrates with offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu (74) after scoring a touchdown against the Auburn Tigers during the third quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-6
Weight: 312
RAS: 9.58
PFF rank: 17th
PFF analysis: “Fashanu is not only incredibly talented but will also be one of the youngest prospects in the 2024 class. He is the type of athlete in the trenches teams should draft in the first round, even if he needs to get stronger to live up to his very high potential.”
1.17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
Dec 2, 2023; Charlotte, NC, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Jared Verse (5) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Louisville Cardinals at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-4
Weight: 254
RAS: 9.57
PFF rank: 19th
PFF analysis: “Verse doesn’t have the longest arms, and that shows up in some pass-rush counters and in tackling, but he brings his hard hat and lunch pail to every snap, wins with strength regularly and is built like a first-rounder.”
1.18. Cincinnati Bengals: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
Nov 11, 2023; Pasadena, California, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils wide receiver Melquan Stovall (7) runs against UCLA Bruins defensive lineman Laiatu Latu (15) at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Alex Gallardo-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-5
Weight: 259
RAS: 9.30
PFF rank: 10th
PFF analysis: “Overall, though somewhat limited athletically, his home is in the offensive backfield due to his hand usage and pass-rush moves that will continue to win at the NFL level.”
1.19. Los Angeles Rams: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-0
Weight: 203
RAS: 9.85
PFF rank: 8th
PFF analysis: “The talk of DeJean playing outside cornerback or safety or slot cornerback at the next level is not due to lack of a home position; it’s because he could truly be an impact player anywhere. His footwork, ball skills and explosive athleticism make him an impactful outside cornerback — one with All-Pro potential.”
1.20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Jan 9, 2023; Inglewood, CA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Amarius Mims (65) and offensive lineman Tate Ratledge (69) against the TCU Horned Frogs during the CFP national championship game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-7
Weight: 340
RAS: 9.59
PFF rank: 20th
PFF analysis: “Mims is not a polished prospect — he’s a level below former teammate and first-round pick Broderick Jones — but he brings sky-high potential. He’ll take some developing, but trench players built like this don’t make it out of the top 50.”
1.21. Miami Dolphins: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-6
Weight: 342
RAS: N/A
PFF rank: 18th
PFF analysis: “Latham is in the mold of an offensive lineman who does not come around often. He will be just 21 years old during his rookie season, yet he has two years of starting experience in the SEC. Despite drawing 18 penalties over the past two years and having room to improve in some anticipation parts of the position, Latham is a first-round trench player due to his rare combination of size, speed and refinement.”
1.22. Philadelphia Eagles: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Nov 25, 2023; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers cornerback Nate Wiggins (2) smiles after breaking up a pass to South Carolina wide receiver Nyck Harbor (8) during the fourth quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Clemson won 16-7. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-1
Weight: 173
RAS: 9.42
PFF rank: 24th
PFF analysis: “Wiggins has the tools of a first-round, high-impact cornerback. His athleticism will never be in question, nor will his competitiveness. Those two characteristics should yield a long-term starting player.”
1.23. Minnesota Vikings: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Feb 3, 2024; Mobile, AL, USA; National quarterback Bo Nix of Oregon (10) throws the ball during the first half of the 2024 Senior Bowl football game at Hanco*ck Whitney Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-2
Weight: 214
RAS: N/A
PFF rank: 35th
PFF analysis: “Nix’s experience manifests in the form of pre-snap reads, play under pressure and avoiding negatives. His footwork needs to be more disciplined, and he will take some time to really read progressions better in the NFL. However, he is a QB with starting-caliber tools in his arm and his legs, and he comes with added out-of-structure playmaking.”
1.24. Dallas Cowboys: Jer'Zhan Newton, IDL, Illinois
Nov 6, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive lineman Jer’Zhan Newton (94) reacts to a missed stop in the third quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-2
Weight: 295
RAS: N/A
PFF rank: 11th
PFF analysis: “Newton has some physical limitations due to his size and lack of natural flexibility, but his hand usage, pass-rush tools and block-shedding ability allow him to be very productive in any alignment as a three-to-five-technique player.”
1.25. Green Bay Packers: Graham Barton, IOL, Duke
Nov 11, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils offensive lineman Graham Barton (62) before the game at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-5
Weight: 313
RAS: 9.99
PFF rank: 23rd
PFF analysis: “Barton is a tough lineman who moves well and has strong hands and a mean streak in the run game. His best position in the NFL is likely at center, as he brings starting-caliber traits there.”
1.26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Jan 1, 2024; New Orleans, LA, USA; Texas Longhorns wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (5) catches a touchdown pass against Washington Huskies running back Ryder Bumgarner (25) during the fourth quarter in the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-2
Weight: 205
RAS: 9.99
PFF rank: 22nd
PFF analysis: “Mitchell’s fluidity at his size makes him a tough matchup, especially in the red zone. The biggest area of concern I have with him is that I wish he attacked the ball more when it was in the air. If he improves in that category, he has fringe WR1/WR2 abilities.”
1.27. Arizona Cardinals: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon
Nov 18, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Oregon Ducks offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson (58) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-3
Weight: 328
RAS: N/A
PFF rank: 27th
PFF analysis: “Powers-Johnson possesses starting-caliber power and finesse traits at center or guard for both zone or man/gap-blocking concepts. He is dominant enough at his position to be considered a top-20 talent.”
1.28. Buffalo Bills: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-3
Weight: 209
RAS: 9.84
PFF rank: 25th
PFF analysis: “Thomas offers a good combination of size and speed to push the ball vertically down the sideline, demanding safeties stay rotated to his side. To truly unlock that kind of threat, he will need to show he can consistently beat press coverage. Offenses that like to push the ball will prioritize what he brings to the table in the top 50.”
1.29. Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Alabama defensive back Kool-Aid McKinstry (1) gestures in celebration after Tennessee failed to convert a 4th down in the fourth quarter of a football game between Tennessee and Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023.
Height: 5-11
Weight: 199
RAS: 7.54
PFF rank: 26th
PFF analysis: “McKinstry plays one of the most difficult positions in the game with so much poise and production. He might not be an elite athlete, but he is one of the smartest cornerback prospects you’ll find. He can play in any defensive scheme and is the type of player you draft in the first round.”
1.30. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Nov 25, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats offensive lineman Jordan Morgan (77) against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-5
Weight: 311
RAS: 9.24
PFF rank: 37th
PFF analysis: “Morgan needs to get stronger, whether he plays tackle or guard in the NFL, but he has desirable athletic traits, such as fast hands and feet, that bolster his starting-caliber potential.”
1.31. San Francisco 49ers: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
Nov 24, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks wide receiver Troy Franklin (11) celebrates after catching a pass for a touchdown during the first half against the Oregon State Beavers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 6-2
Weight: 176
RAS: 9.02
PFF rank: 29th
PFF analysis: “Franklin might get lost in the shuffle of a loaded wide receiver class, but he shouldn’t. His smoothness comes from his athletic profile and his confidence in knowing how to win at the position. He needs to continue to get stronger but, overall, is a competitive player who can be a good WR2 for a vertical NFL offense.”
1.32. Kansas City Chiefs: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
Dec 30, 2023; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Ladd McConkey (84) makes a catch and runs for touchdown against the Florida State Seminoles during the first half in the 2023 Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Height: 5-11
Weight: 186
RAS: 9.33
PFF rank: 32nd
PFF analysis: “Don’t expect McConkey to be an “X,” jump ball receiver, but outside of that, it’s hard to imagine him not succeeding in the NFL. His game is reminiscent of Eddie Royal. Maybe not as fast with long speed, but he has devastating quickness, is good in the return game and is a strong blocker for his size.”
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