Bronny James has the type of athleticism, selfless passing ability, and defensive tenacity that gives him NBA potential. But as a freshman guard at USC, he underwhelmed as a shooter and shot creator, averaging 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game while shooting 36.6 percent from the field and 26.7 percent from 3-point range. If LeBron weren’t his father, Bronny would not be on the 2024 draft radar.
“Bronny is nowhere near ready,” an NBA general manager told The Ringer. “He should go back to school to develop at his own pace or he risks getting lost in the shuffle, whether or not he’s playing with his dad.”
James declared for the draft this week while retaining his college eligibility and also entering the transfer portal, so he has options for his future. And as a sports fan, I’m rooting for Bronny to succeed because I’d love another junior-senior story after growing up in the 1990s loving Ken Griffey Jr. and watching him play with his father. But the harsh reality is that there’s no guarantee James has the skill to stick in the NBA.
James suffered a heart issue that delayed the start of his college career, so he’d likely have a better sophom*ore season after entering the year fully healthy. But his freshman performance mirrored both the strengths and weaknesses that scouts observed throughout his high school career.
I spoke with an NBA GM, another front-office executive, and a scout, all from separate teams, to get their opinions on Bronny’s future and how it could tie into LeBron’s final years. All of them were granted anonymity so that they could speak freely for the story.
The Big Question
Watch a Bronny highlight reel, and you’ll see a player who looks the part from beyond the arc:
But his shots don’t fall often enough. James shot only 19.6 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s at USC, according to Synergy Sports. He missed 37 of his 46 attempts and sprayed them all over. Front-rim misses. Back of the rim. Clankers off the left and right sides. Usually, the best shooters consistently miss short or long, not to the sides. But shots have never regularly fallen for Bronny, even going back to high school. James received accolades as a McDonald’s All-American and an invite to the Nike Hoop Summit, but his shot was always just a theoretical skill. At the high school level, he made only 33.8 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s on 139 attempts, according to the Synergy database. That’s a much better percentage than he had in college but still nowhere close to a knockdown level.
“Bronny is an undersized non-shooting guard,” an NBA scout told The Ringer. “The shot looks good but doesn’t go in. Those guys scare me the most. It’s either lack of touch or mental, and either way, those take years to correct.”
Will Bronny’s percentages someday match his picturesque form? It can be valuable to look at percentages from other areas of the floor to get an overall picture of a player’s shooting ability. But in high school and college combined, Synergy data says James made only 28.1 percent of his floaters, 30.2 percent of his pull-up 2-point jumpers, and 26.7 percent of his dribble-jumper 3s. None of these numbers are positive indicators.
James did make 43.8 percent of his pull-up jumpers at USC, but it came on only 32 attempts. Still, these flashes are what optimists must hold on to if they want to believe in his long-term potential.
“He’d be a first-rounder if he had shot well [at USC],” said the GM. USC lists Bronny James at 6-foot-4, but it’s believed he’s closer to 6-foot-2. Despite his lack of height, he has a wide, chiseled frame, and when his shots are falling off the dribble, he looks like the type of creator who can make defenders pay for giving him too much space. Since he’s willing to play off the ball, he could in theory be an athletic player who shoots off screens and handoffs or makes passes off those movement actions.
“[ESPN draft insider Jonathan] Givony had him ranked as a lotto guy at one point last year for a reason,” the GM continued. “But unfortunately, Bronny’s shot still hasn’t developed.”
Bronny is now unranked on ESPN’s 2024 board, instead falling in the second round of its 2025 board. Givony made that switch back in February, which prompted LeBron to make a since-deleted post on X: “Can yall please just let the kid be a kid and enjoy college basketball. The work and results will ultimately do the talking no matter what he decides to do.”
I’ve had Bronny unranked in my 2024 NBA Draft Guide all season largely because of concerns about his jumper and overall lack of production; he just seemed like more of a 2025 or 2026 prospect. This class is deep with guards who are better bets than him at this point.
Ballhandling
Bronny must figure out how to hit his jumpers to be an effective NBA player because he doesn’t offer dynamic ballhandling ability or primary playmaking. Those aren’t things he’s excelled at on any level, whether playing for Sierra Canyon in high school, for USA Basketball squads, or for USC. James has long been more of a connective playmaker who makes passes within the flow of the offense.
Passes like the ones above can help lubricate a half-court offense. He makes quick decisions. He has an ambidextrous flair to him, too. But if he doesn’t have a reliable jumper, his threat from the perimeter is limited. Of course, the same also could have been said about his father in the early stages of his development. LeBron was not a reliable perimeter shooter in high school and even into the early stages of his NBA career. Eventually, it came to him. But LeBron also had otherworldly size and athleticism. Bronny doesn’t have a great handle, limiting his ability to regularly create his own shot or get into the paint.
James took only 22.8 percent of his shot attempts at the rim this season. Most of those attempts came via off-ball cuts or transition attacks. In the half court, he didn’t log a single dunk attempt and made only one of his five attempts on self-created shots at the rim (by my count, after I watched each video on Synergy).
As the clips above show, James does not get significant burst off the dribble, and unlike his dad, he isn’t an elite leaper without a runway. This means that his shots can get blocked or heavily altered, which raises doubts about his ability to ever be a primary shot creator.
Since he has a good passing feel and high basketball IQ, there’s a role for him playing next to high-level teammates as long as he develops his jumper. But until he does, the idea that he’ll suddenly be better in the NBA than he was in college is far-fetched.
In a tweet during last year’s regular season, LeBron said: “Man Bronny definitely better than some of these cats I’ve been watching on league pass today. sh*t lightweight hilarious.”
LeBron’s support for his son is admirable, though the by-product of his immense worldwide fame is the perception that Bronny is a far greater prospect than he actually is. And so far his results have not changed based on his circ*mstances, which have been chosen for him every step of the way.
“I love the ‘He’s better with better players’ spin so much,” said the scout. “He had better players this year and was still inefficient.”
Defense
The Trojans struggled this season, posting a 15-18 record. The team just never clicked. But it was still the most talent that Bronny had ever shared the floor with; a potential lottery pick, Isaiah Collier, led what was labeled the country’s third-best recruiting class. The only times Bronny had played with more talent, other than in his driveway, was at McDonald’s All-American, which is a glorified exhibition, and the Hoop Summit, which features players from around the world in a competitive atmosphere.
Bronny optimists point to that game as a reason to believe in James, who finished with 11 points, four rebounds, one block, and one steal coming off the bench for Team USA at the annual Hoop Summit last April. “He played extremely hard,” said the executive. “It was apparent that his skill level needed time to develop, and that’s certainly OK as a prospect.”
Any team that drafts James will need to be patient. But his defense would be the first skill that earns him a chance at minutes. Most noticeably, he has extremely quick hands and the reaction time to rack up deflections on crossovers and passes.
One of Bronny’s best defensive sequences of the season came against Oregon, the school he almost chose over USC. In the clip above, he made a perfect closeout following an offensive board, then stuck his hand in the air to steal the ball like he was swatting a mosquito.
In the next play, above, he perfectly timed his contest on a jumper to poke it away before the opponent could even elevate.
James had multiple chase-down blocks and high-effort highlights throughout the season. “He knows where to be in help defensively,” said the scout, who noted that James had somewhat inflated steal numbers since he was allowed to take chances he won’t be able to at the next level. Nonetheless, his IQ, reflexes, and awareness all mean that he has defensive playmaking potential.
On the ball, James is laterally quick and makes an effort to stay in his stance while mirroring the opponent. We can nitpick his technique when he fights over screens, but any defensive flaws are easily solvable considering his intelligence and hustle. “Size is really the only issue for him on defense,” said the GM. “If he was actually 6-foot-4 or even a bit bigger, he’d have really excellent potential.”
Instead, James projects as more of a disrupter. Comparisons that came up in these conversations include Patrick Beverley, Davion Mitchell, and Norris Cole. Beverley has had the longest career of the three because he’s the best shooter (37 percent from 3 in his career). Mitchell has yet to figure out his shot with the Kings, while Cole won two titles with LeBron in Miami before flaming out, in part because his shot never developed. But all three of them were respectable defenders. Bronny will have to follow in their footsteps to catch on with a winning team.
The LeBron Factor
Bronny declared for the draft but retained his college eligibility and entered the transfer portal. A return to USC seems unlikely after head coach Andy Enfield left for SMU. Perhaps Bronny would reconsider Oregon or even Ohio State? Then there’s Duquesne, an Atlantic 10 Conference school that James is expected to consider, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. LeBron’s high school teammate Dru Joyce is the successor for head coach Keith Dambrot, who was LeBron’s coach in high school. The A-10 has been the home of plenty of NBA prospects in recent years, from Obi Toppin to Bones Hyland. So it’s not without its success stories for players who need multiple years in school.
Bronny has only until May 1 to make a decision on a school before the transfer portal closes. Testing the NBA waters gives him flexibility, though. There’s nothing to lose on that end. He can go through the predraft process, get feedback from NBA teams, and perhaps show off an improved jumper or handle. By May 29, when Bronny must make a decision on whether to withdraw from the draft, perhaps there will be more clarity about LeBron’s future, too. The Lakers will also have a clearer idea of their outlook by then: As the ninth seed, they are currently a long shot to make a Finals run; they’d have to win two games in the play-in tournament to even grab a spot in the playoffs.
“[Bronny’s] path to the NBA has yet to be defined,” said the exec. “And it’s not to knock the kid, either. He seems like a great teammate. He’s in a difficult spot.”
Indeed. Every passing season, LeBron gets another year older, another year closer to retirement. And if Bronny doesn’t continue improving, then his own chances of getting an opportunity at the next level diminish. The time to make the leap could be now, provided there’s a team that wants to invest in him while also increasing the odds of luring his father to their organization.
As a result of the Anthony Davis trade, the Lakers will lose their first-round pick to the Pelicans either this year or next. People around the league expect that the Pelicans will give the Lakers their pick this year and take the 2025 pick. If that’s the case, it’s hard to fathom that Los Angeles would use the pick on Bronny. Rob Pelinka is far more likely to use it to chase Trae Young or another star in a trade.
The Lakers do, however, have a late second that could be used on Bronny, unless another team takes him earlier. Would the Warriors try to leverage Bronny and their players’ relationships with his father to get LeBron? Or maybe the Sixers, with all their cap space, could try to get the father-son duo? Or perhaps the Knicks would take Bronny, offering LeBron a good team and a big market? Teams with a cache of picks, such as the Jazz or Thunder, could see the appeal in taking a flier on him too, regardless of the odds that LeBron would have interest. But removing that significant variable does diminish Bronny’s value in this year’s draft.
“There are probably three rounds’ worth of prospects more talented than Bronny in this class,” the GM said. “So picking Bronny is more about getting LeBron’s attention right now than it is about developing Bronny himself.”
LeBron has of course helped Bronny as much as he could along the way, providing him with world-class resources and love. With that has also come pressure—which we can see in the quotes LeBron gives to microphones and his own phone. But James has backed down from his comments about playing on the same team as his son.
“Whatever his journey, however his journey lays out, he’s going to do what’s best for him,” LeBron said last May. “We’re going to support him in whatever he decides to do. So just because that’s my aspiration or my goal doesn’t mean it’s his. And I’m absolutely OK with that.”
In the months to come, Bronny needs to figure out whether by fulfilling his father’s dream, he’s still pursuing his own.
